For the first time in several years, Ada County results for this September were slower than a year ago. This September's sales were 12% lower than those of last September and pending transactions at the end of the month, a forecast of things to come, were 11% lower than they were at the end of last September.
What is causing this? Much of our growth and market results in recent years have been caused by immigration from our feeder markets, particularly those in California. Those markets are now beginning to suffer as home prices have escalated faster than household income.
The quote below discusses the decline in pending home sales in the western part of the United States.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said, “The greatest decline occurred in the West region where prices have shot up significantly, which clearly indicates that affordability is hindering buyers and those affordability issues come from lack of inventory, particularly in moderate price points.”
The chart below shows the last 12 months of results for sales, pendings and inventory level.